Monday, July 16, 2012

Fantasy Baseball: Trade for late bloomers now

It?s hard to believe it?s only half over.

My love for baseball is so extreme it probably isn?t healthy, but it?s still a long season, even for me. And after studying the rotisserie standings in my leagues for three months, sometimes they feel immovable. But the standings aren?t immovable. And neither are yours.

Sometimes it boggles my mind how quickly a 10th-place team can slide up to second by way of a couple of hot weeks. If you?re feeling down and out ? don?t quit. Victory will be that much sweeter if you come from the bottom of the pack.

So consider these players as my targets for the second half. They represent the players I would be drafting (if there were midseason drafts) based on their perceived value. It?s a little different now because you?ll be trading for them instead of selecting them for your team, but value is value is value. And that?s how you win a fantasy league.

ADAM DUNN, 1B

He?s certainly outperformed his draft-day price, but I believe Dunn?s second-half will resemble the old power-hitting first baseman we know and love. Last season Dunn somehow lost the ability to hit a fastball. That has returned and he has 26 home runs to prove it. It?s his .212 average that is depressing his value, but considering that his xBABIP (data courtesy of Fangraphs) is 82 points higher than his BABIP, I?d expect a very palatable .240 average the rest of the way.

CLIFF LEE, SP

Philly fans who hate Cliff Lee are the worst. They don?t know a good ? no, great ? thing when it?s sitting in their lap. Sure, Lee hasn?t helped fantasy owners with his performance as the 78th best starting pitcher thus far, according to ESPN?s Player Rater, but that?s largely due to his single solitary win. A 3.92 ERA isn?t any great shakes either, but a 4.90 K/BB rate suggests that Lee has not changed and can be expected to be his ace-like self from here on out.

BRIAN MCCANN, C

Everything?s there except the average, and again, the BABIP (.233!) doesn?t come close to the expected. He?ll be just fine, and is still a top four option ? at worst ? among backstops.

MATT GARZA, SP

Garza makes for a strong risk-reward opportunity for those in the latter half of the standings. He likely will be traded at or before the trade deadline, which could be a significant boost to his win potential and help curb his inflated 16.7% HR/FB rate. Depending on the team and ballpark, he could be had at a value. Pray for a National League team to acquire him for the best possible scenario.

IKE DAVIS, 1B

Source: http://feeds.nydailynews.com/~r/nydnrss/latino/~3/dDt2FDpPwfQ/fantasy-baseball-trade-season-late-bloomers-article-1.1114609

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